State of the Industry 2004: Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up To Me
"And in that spirit, let's drill down and focus on the RPG numbers. Usually, the top five spots in the Comics & Games Retailer list are reliable, in two senses: the companies occupying them don't shift around a lot, and the sales numbers are big enough that it's defensible to say that even the C&GR figures bear some relation to reality. If the RPG business is as shrunken as it might be, however, neither assumption is going to hold. Keep that in mind as we go forward. Unquestionably, however, the number one company in the market is Wizards of the Coast. One distributor quoted in ICv2 said that 'Dungeons & Dragons sells four times World of Darkness and World of Darkness sells four times everything else.' C&GR gives Wizards a slightly less commanding, but no less apparent, lead, with a little less than 43% of the core hobby RPG market, again roughly the same as last year. White Wolf likewise held a decisive second place, with strong sales for the reimagined Vampire and new World of Darkness core books driving a good second half of 2004. By C&GR numbers, the Wolf actually improved its standing, to 22% of the market in 2004.
"Similarly, the revised GURPS 4th Edition books rode full-color hardbacks (and commensurate price increases) uphill to 5% and a bit of the RPG market in 2004; again, ICv2 concurs that Steve Jackson Games is Number Three with a (6d large piercing attack) bullet. C&GR lists AEG at fourth place with 4%, FanPro at fifth and Palladium in sixth with around 3.5% each. ICv2 forbears to give numbers, but lists the next three as Mongoose, Green Ronin, and Hero. If I had to guess, I'd say it's most likely Mongoose at fourth (call it 3.5% or 4% of the market) and the rest of the second tier (FanPro, Palladium, AEG, Hero, and Green Ronin) in a cloud of dust somewhere down there in shouting distance of 2%. Fantasy Flight and Kenzer and Eden may have 1% each at best; the rest are bouncing around down there among the drow and suchlike. Of all the Bottom Not Two, FanPro might take a jump up this year with Shadowrun 4th Edition in August, and I've learned not to count Kevin Siembieda out, but I think Steve will be able to hang onto third place in the RPG sector as Mongoose begins to spread its energies into card, board, and miniature games."
